Bilasco_2_2013

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF HYDROLOGICAL DATASETS TO DETERMINE LONG-TERM FORECAST

ŞT. BILAŞCO¹, CS. HORVÁTH²

¹Romanian Academy, Cluj‐Napoca Subsidiary, Geography Section, 400015, Cluj‐Napoca, Romania, e‐mail:sbila sco@geografie.ubbcluj.ro

²Babeş‐Bolyai University, Faculty of Geography, 400006, Cluj‐Napoca, Romania, e‐mail: csaba.horvath@geografie.ubbcluj.ro

ABSTRACT. – Statistical Analysis of Hydrological Datasets to Determine Long‐ Term Forecast. Hydrological forecasting takes various forms, from the calculation of certain runoff probabilities to statistical analysis of datasets recorded at gauging stations. If the first method of forecast refers only to punctual events, floods, inundations, making it useful for hydropower and watershed management facilities design, the statistical method allows longer forecasts by analyzing the measured datasets. For the statistical analysis of the hydrological data, we implemented the Thomas‐Fiering model which is usually used for hydrological applications. The recorded monthly average runoff data was selected from Cluj and Răcătău gauging stations on a 52 year period. The model was used to generate synthetic values at monthly scale, during the 1950 ‐ 2002 period, for 20 years between 1992 and 2012 it forecasted values and it was validated through the 10 years between 1992 and 2002.

Keywords: hydrological forecasting, statistical method, Thomas‐Fiering model

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