ANALYSIS OF ANNUAL RAINFALL DATA BY MARKOVIAN APPROACH IN THE LOBO WATERSHED (WEST-CENTER OF CÔTE D’IVOIRE)
VAMI HERMANN N’GUESSAN BI1,2, MARC YOUAN TA1,2, FABRICE BLANCHARD ALLECHY1, FABRICE ASSA YAPI1, ALIOUNE BADRA KONE2, KOUADIO AFFIAN1,2
1 Laboratoire des Sciences et Techniques de l’Eau et de l’Environnement, UFR STRM, Université Felix Houphouët-Boigny, Côte d’Ivoire, vami@outlook.com/fabriceallechy@gmail.com
2 Centre Universitaire de Recherche et d’Application en Télédétection (CURAT), Université Felix Houphouët-Boigny, Côte d’Ivoire, youanta@gmail.com
ABSTRACT. The rainfall deficit has become remarkable in recent decades in Côte d’Ivoire in general and particularly in the Lobo watershed. The objective of this study is to analyze rain behaviour using weather generator MulGETS based on first order Markov chains to two states. Daily data from 1984 to 2013 from 17 stations were used to predict daily precipitation data for the period 2021 to 2050. The results obtained show that the probability of having two successive dry years or two successive wet years is higher over the entire study area for the period 1984-2013. For the period 2021 to 2050, the probability of having two successive dry years and two successive wet years will be higher over the entire basin and in the south, center and north respectively. The probability of a wet year followed by a dry year will be higher in the south, west, northwest and north of the basin. The probability of a dry year followed by a wet year will be relatively high in the north, center and southwest of the basin.
Keywords: rainfall analysis, MulGETS, Lobo, Côte d’Ivoire.